Assessing Turkey's Foreign Policy Behavior as a Regional Power Between NATO and Russia


This project examines Turkey's foreign policy behavior as a regional power in the 21st century, focusing on its alliances with NATO and (strategic) partnership with Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has reignited discussions about the strategic value of military alliances, highlighting Turkey's unique position due to its relationships with both Kyiv and Moscow. Despite Ankara's firm ties with NATO, its refusal to join Western sanctions against Russia reflects a desire for strategic autonomy. To evaluate Turkey's foreign policy behavior, this research examines three conflict scenarios—Libya, Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh. In these scenarios, Turkey, NATO, and Russia have been involved on opposing sides, but they have maintained the capacity to reconcile their differing perspectives. This delicate balancing act, navigating between cooperation and contention, is instrumental in understanding Turkey's broader foreign policy strategy. Drawing on neoclassical realism and incorporating Foreign Policy Analysis, the project scrutinizes the blend of domestic, regional, and international factors influencing Turkey's foreign policy behavior. It seeks to clarify the sustainability of Turkey's diplomatic equilibrium by examining the dynamics between its bilateral relationships with NATO and Russia and its general alliance strategy. In exploring this three-way relation, the project contributes to the literature on regional power behavior, the process and outcome of alliance-making, and the ongoing debate on the significance of military and non-military alliances. The approach promises insights into the motivations behind Turkey's alignments and the mechanisms facilitating de-escalation with Russia and NATO, offering a comprehensive perspective on Turkey's role at the intersection of European and Asian geopolitics. 

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